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The US Monetary Policy Committee, at the end of its meeting on the evening of November 3, 2010, is announcing a new round of liquidity enhancement in an attempt to break the deadlock in lending and boost economic growth. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke set two goals for the move, namely reducing unemployment and raising inflation, in defiance of the price-deflation epidemic that has crippled Japan’s economy over the past two decades. The injection of liquidity, known as the “quantitative easing” policy, has been supported by US economists who have argued that anti-unemployment and price deflation are crucial for the US economy. But they noted that Bernanke’s two goals, which were announced at the end of August, would only be achieved through mechanisms that would have an impact on global investment and economy, such as reducing US interest rates to stimulate consumer spending and weaken the dollar to support exports.
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The Reserve, as many economists have noted, achieved great success just because the new round of quantitative easing was announced. The dollar has fallen 6 percent since the end of August, against major currencies and US stocks rose more than 10 percent. Gold prices, boosted by inflationary concerns triggered by a liquidity boost, sparked new highs before easing slightly as the FOMC meeting approaches.
The Reserve Board will not find it difficult, after the committee’s meeting and its forthcoming statement, to achieve more success with all its disadvantages, especially for foreign investment in US Treasury bonds. The outlook for the global market unit at CIBC, which is strongly active in the US market, indicated that the yields of these bonds are expected to fall by between 5 and 8 percent by the end of the year, compared to their current low levels.
The value of foreign investments in US Treasuries was $ 4 trillion in August, but exceeded $ 10 trillion, taking into account the bonds of subprime mortgage institutions, US corporate bonds and equities. The share of Saudi Arabia and a few Arab countries in these foreign investments exceeds $400 billion.
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The weakening of the dollar will not require more than mechanisms that reduce the yield on Treasury bonds. In what analysts at Morgan Stanley considered the most likely scenario, the commission is expected to announce its intention to hold $ 100 billion of government bonds per month and to stress that they can be increased or reduced as needed. This means that the Reserve will not own the bulk of The Bitcoin Code bonds Issued by the Treasury Department to finance the deficit for fiscal 2011 alone, but will limit the demand for the dollar.
After losing 6 percent of its value from late August 2010 to the end of October, the dollar has stabilized at the mid-2008 level, a record date for which the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) issued a serious warning that the dollar’s 37 percent depreciation (against major currencies) Since early 2002, foreign investors with dollar-denominated assets have been hit by “huge dollar losses and heavier losses on their national currency.”
Ben Bernanke answers Congressional questions about quantitative easing.
Quantitative Facilitation in the United States (2009-2014)
Expectations that the dollar is likely to strengthen its position in a slow but steady path against the major currencies, led by the Euro, the British Pound, the Japanese Yen, the Swiss Franc, the Canadian Dollar and the Australian, taking advantage of profit taking by speculators who bet on the negative effects of QE, Before taking the opposite path at the end of the first quarter of next year.
US economists, who strongly supported the launch of a new round of liquidity boost, “doubt the ability of monetary policy and its unconventional measures to solve the unemployment crisis, which they saw as the stalemate of the crisis in the housing sector and the entire US economy, unless supported by a generous government subsidy Economic development. But agreed that any decision taken by the administration of President Barack Obama in this regard will depend on the surprises that will be borne by the midterm elections.
Deflation The continuous decline in prices in all aspects of the state economy, which is the opposite of inflation in which prices are increasing. The financial contraction is little, but its results are more damaging than inflation.
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Every year, about 5% of the world’s countries, most of them least developed countries, suffer from a financial downturn but it is a short-term emergency. Some industrialized countries such as the United States, the United Kingdom, Japan, Australia and Canada have suffered from a financial downturn at some point in time.
The financial downturn sometimes occurs when the economy suffers from a recession or a recession. A recession or stagnation is accompanied by a temporary decline in all aspects of economic activity. The United States suffered a severe financial downturn during the Great Depression of the 1930s.
Financial contraction sometimes occurs as a result of intense competition between producers of goods and services to increase their sales by lowering their prices. However, the lack of demand for goods and services is the main cause of the downturn. During the Great Depression, several factors in the United States combined with a decline in demand for goods and services.
Banks lacked enough liquidity to lend to individuals and businesses. The Fed’s inability to stimulate the economy by injecting more cash into circulation. The central government has prepared a balanced budget that prevents it from cutting taxes or increasing government expenditures. These combined causes led to a decline in demand for goods and services and then to a financial downturn.
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The term deflation is modern in economic thought as the term inflation [R] inflation. At the stage where the classical school was dominated, deflation was marked as a kind of depression, temporarily waiting for the spontaneous balance of supply and demand, between production and consumption, to return to normal. But the entry of the capitalist economy into periodic crises since 1825 has drawn attention to deflation as a pre-recession aspect of the crisis. Inflation in the sixteenth century by economist Jean Baydin was familiar in the 19th century. When inflation entered the economic literature in the English name referred to above, the word deflation means a deliberate process to remove inflation.
The concept of inflation has been closely linked to the concept of inflation, but it remains a one-sided link. Deflation is a solution to inflation, while no one says that deflation finds its solution in inflation, but in restoring equilibrium. However, the deflation case can infect the economy spontaneously. In economic thought, it raises a number of definitions, which are difficult to define in nature, intentional or unintended, especially when mixed with other monetary and economic phenomena.
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However, the limits on which deflation can be limited are the aggregate supply and demand limits: the higher the first is removed, the more the contraction, and the opposite in inflation, regardless of the reasons that led to it. Here, too, deflation was remarkable in all economies, whether capitalist, socialist or developing. In capitalism, for example, deflation can be seen when the market economy loses its balance after reaching the full operational point of the British economy Keynes, as evidenced by the pessimism of economic life as a result of the cancellation of profit or bankruptcy possibilities in projects, disruption of production factors or increased production costs.
In socialism, deflation appears as a result of setting economic plan targets that are limited to using all available resources or because total expenditure is less than the value of GDP. In developing countries, deflation can show a policy reaction to raise rates of development in inflationary ways, which the socio-economic structure does not respond to.
Deflation and recession
Stagnation is different from the fact that the first, if slow, is organized into a set of measures that will rebalance the economy. The recession is a situation that is sweeping the economy, causing a decline in production, rising prices and unemployment, all of which have an impact on social life. The recession may be mixed with inflation, then called Stagflation, a situation that now dominates the economies of capitalist countries. Monetary inflation is accompanied by economic stagnation. If deflation is the flip side of inflation, the recession is the flip side of prosperity Prospérité. But it must also be pointed out that deflation, when settled, leads to stagnation and hence some ambiguities in identifying each.
With the exception of some rare cases in the so-called socialist economies, where monetary contraction may occur as a result of erroneous erroneous estimates that reduce cash flows compared to commodity flows, monetary contraction is only the result of a deliberate monetary policy aimed at reducing the cash mass and reaching the limits The so-called monetary Ponction Monétaire. This monetary monetization is intended to restrain prices or to force them to decline as a result of the forced reduction of the monetary mass. For this reason, the State has a number of means, the most important of which are: the reduction of the monetary issue and the withdrawal of some currency categories from circulation, which in any case raises the value of the national currency and is reflected in lower prices. The coverage is in the control of the cash issue and the definition of the monetary unit in a sound way to achieve monetary stability. Therefore, the State is keen on this coverage, keen to stabilize the price of its currency. In 1944-46, Belgium carried out a deflationary process that froze banknotes and bank accounts. This led to the stability of monetary circulation and the increase in purchasing power by the rate of growth of production and low prices. In 1948, the Federal Republic of Germany carried out a monetary reform that limited its high cash flows to the economy by converting the Mark, the old Reich currency, to Deutsche Mark by 1 to 10. The relationship between the monetary mass and the prices is easy: prices = mass of mass, To the mass of products. If the cash mass decreases (with the mass of products remaining unchanged), this will lead to lower prices. But this deflationary policy would not have succeeded, says Raymond Barr, had Belgium not been able to achieve extensive imports of its foreign exchange assets (dollar). The policy of monetary contraction also involves social caveats, especially those related to the loss of debtors and the strengthening of savers’ position. It may not be able to reduce prices alone. America adopted this policy during the Nixon era in the 1970s. However, reducing the liquidity in the US economy Economic factors and prices continued to rise as a result of inflation caused by increased costs. The monetary measures proposed by the Chicago School had to be combined with other measures. The policy of monetary contraction itself is imposed on developing countries, but the mostly dominant pattern of production has a mechanism in which it is impossible to apply this policy to address inflation. This same pattern detracts from the issue of coverage and overshadows all criteria when issuing its open cash, Creating inflationary tensions that force the monetary authorities to go in the direction of a counter-policy. The rise in the prices of essential and luxury goods in these countries, as a result of the lack of production on the one hand and the devaluation of the national currency on the other, is a form of compulsory saving by ceasing consumption, but it is a saving that leads to stagnation, speculations, trading in foreign currencies and smuggling, Austerity »Announced.
It is part of a deliberate policy of lending to the State in order to direct the availability of money and achieve economic and financial objectives in the inflation phase. The state may resort to a kind of development without inflation, with moderation in credit policy a kind of deflation. The most important measures within the framework of the deflationary crisis are the liquidity and cost of the issuing bank’s liquidity, sometimes through the repurchase rate, which forces the deposit banks to raise their discount rates and slow down the processes that would find means of payment and through the granting of credits by affecting interest rates In the financial market, and the behavior of the open market policy. The state sells its securities which absorb part of the deposits with the banks, thereby reducing the liquidity of the latter, which limits its ability to credit. The financial authorities are implementing complementary measures to apply the mandatory reserve system to banks by charging a percentage of the funds with the Central Bank equivalent to part of the customers’ deposits and strict control over the cash flow whereby banks are prohibited from exceeding the amounts granted by them to the average amount of the total amounts Deposited. In addition, rationalization of allocation of funds to projects and their categories can be done in a stand-by manner and the granting of such funds for speculative purposes is prohibited by limiting the credit granted to some projects. Most developing countries resort to a policy of inflationary deflation to counter inflation, including interest rate policy, but this latter measure is generally governed by interest rates in international financial markets. The method of financing the budget deficit spread in these countries requires borrowing from banks, as the state resorted to this in exchange for treasury bills, and often without them, which hinders the policy of deflation and opens the door against them.
Deflation in spending
When the imbalance between the volume of production and the volume of expenditure is affected by the increase of the latter and the widening of the “inflationary gap”, the policy of reducing private and public spending (when production can not be increased)
In the area of private Bitcoin Code spending: the first thing that comes to mind is the reduction of wages. It is known that not to reduce wages and salaries a large place in economic thought is not desirable in the stages of socio-economic development.
Faced with the issue of linking wages to prices and fixing wages, and linking wages to productivity, the tone of wage reduction has disappeared. A policy of reducing wages in socialist economies may be envisaged in increasing the surpluses of produced quantities and falling prices. But this is not desirable psychologically, so the state is replacing the wage reduction by increasing taxes to absorb excess purchasing power. Direct personal taxes are preferred provided that they affect all declared incomes that were easy to evade. Indirect taxes, no doubt, limit consumption but also lead to higher prices due to the weight of their burden, leading to another kind of inflation. Therefore, the use of indirect taxes is generally not feasible unless the consumption of recreational goods is harmed.
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In the field of public expenditure: the authorities concerned resort to deflationary policy in the public budget by reducing expenditure on the one hand and achieving savings in the budget on the other. Which can succeed in capitalist and socialist economies. In the backward economy, it is known that a large proportion of government public expenditure tends to rise, such as salaries and administrative, defense and security costs, the reduction of public spending, whatever the authorities concerned, only goes to investment spending. This is paradoxical. Development requires an increase in government spending to increase the quantity of products, and deflation (by austerity), by reducing this spending, reduces the production of essential goods and services. This policy therefore had to take into account the difficulty of reducing expenditures and compensating them with access to resources. This succeeds only at a stage when the backward economy is ripe for recovery. In these underdeveloped countries, the deflationary policy of spending must absorb the additional purchasing power of those with high incomes to return to the state and direct it towards investment and increasing accumulation. Price stability, even relatively, remains a guarantee for the success of the deflationary policy of spending, and this stability helps stabilize exchange rates and improve the country’s relative export position. And then the prices of services should be subject to control. Otherwise, the service actors are active at the expense of commodity activities, which creates an imbalance that is difficult to reform. It follows the same line of inflation that is intended to be curbed.